Decision making for transformative change: exploring model use, structural uncertainty and deep leverage points for change in decision making under deep uncertainty

Decision making under uncertainty and learning about climate change

Decision making under uncertainty

Decision making under uncertainty

1 Laboratory of Computational Neuroscience, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland 2 Laboratoire de Recherché en Neuroimagerie, Le Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois, Lausanne, Switzerland 3 Information Processing and Economic Decision Making, Department of Psychology, Universität Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany 4 Economic Psychology, Department of Psychology, Univers...

Making Good Decisions Without Predictions: Robust Decision Making for Planning Under Deep Uncertainty

Quantitative analysis is often indispensable for making sound policy choices. But when decisionmakers confront today’s conditions of fast-paced, transformative, and even surprising change, they sometimes find that commonly used quantitative methods and tools prove counterproductive or lead them astray. Typically, quantitative analysis provides decisionmakers with information about the future by...

Decision Making under Extreme Uncertainty

Beliefs about an unknown distribution can be defined as a measure on the space of probability density functions. This paper (1) characterizes the set of beliefs that satisfy invariance postulates (2) establishes that updating invariant beliefs leads to a posterior distribution with tail asymptotically approaching 1 x(lnx)n . Note to seminar participant at Wharton: Part I of this paper is primar...